2019 was an extraordinary election year for the European Green Party, and it was clear from the beginning of the 2024 campaign that it would be tough to match it again this year. While the Greens lost seats overall, most of the losses were concentrated in Germany and Western Europe, while the bloc was able to pick up new seats in the South and East.
After an estimated 50.8% voting turnout, a new European Parliament (EP) was elected and will count 720 MEPs from 27 EU Member States. The results are still provisional and being updated. For the latest numbers, check the European Parliament website.
The European Green Party (EGP) is an umbrella organization that unites environmentalist and progressive political parties from across the European continent. As such, it is not only represented by its members in the European Parliament (Greens/EFA Group) but also acts as a political representative outside of the parliament.
The EGP ended the current EP term with 57 seats (and the whole Greens/EFA Group, which contains also MEPs from other political families with 71 MEPs); while not all votes have been counted at the writing of this article and seats will shift to a minor degree, we already know that the European Greens will lose about 15 seats, so about a quarter of their current delegation in aggregate.
Many of the losses came from Germany, where the EGP member Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (GRÜNE) has been part of the federal government for three years now. In this role, it had to navigate a difficult political environment: some voters may have considered that GRÜNE had abandoned core values with the coalition with the liberal FDP and the centre-left SPD, which had rejected climate-ambitious policies the Greens had initially proposed. Others may critique the Greens after having felt the financial consequences of climate change policies amidst a cost-of-living crisis. In short, it is not easy to return to government after 15 years in opposition and maintain its initial level of voter support, which GRÜNE still enjoyed in 2019 when in opposition. As such, the German Greens here declined from 21 seats to only 12.
But are the European elections purely determined by national themes? Probably not. Eurobarometer data suggests that climate change and biodiversity were less important to voters in this electoral campaign than in 2019. The wars in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as the cost-of-living crisis, have dominated the news – and the themes of security and social issues are less connected to the Green label than climate change.
In France, the Greens Les Écologistes-Europe Écologie multiparty list got additionally crushed between the liberal multiparty alliance of French President Emmanuel Macron, Besoin d’Europe, and the centre-left alliance led by the Parti socialiste, Envie d'Europe écologique et sociale, which both prominently caught the attention of the media whilst fighting over third position. Winning only 5.5% as of 90.3% counted, the French Greens almost dropped below the threshold required to enter the EU Parliament. In 2019, the party won 14.5%, resulting in a drop in seats from 10 to five for Les Écologistes. Due to an alliance with the centre left (PvdA-Groenlinks), the Greens GroenLinks in the Netherlands were able to withstand the Western European decline and increased their seat number from three to four.
The Belgian Greens suffered similar losses: Ecolo (in the French-speaking electoral college) and Groen (in the Dutch-speaking electoral college) won only two seats combined, one less than in 2019. In Finland, the Greens Vihreä Liitto dropped from three to two seats.
The Austrian Greens Die Grünen – Die Grüne Alternative remained stable relative to their current seat number (two seats). The Luxembourg Greens (Déi Gréng) held their seat.
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Novel breakthroughs in the South, in the East and in Denmark
While the Greens suffered losses in their strongholds, they gained support in other parts of the continent, where the European Green Party has been building relationships with newly emerged national political parties, which often have their origin in local grassroots movements. This strategy paid off and prevented the European Greens from heavier overall losses: Možemo! – politička platforma won their first seat in Croatia. Progresīvie in Latvia gained representation for the first time as well, after joining the European Green Party during the outgoing legislative period. Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ from Lithuania had a similar trajectory and also won one seat. In Slovenia, Vesna - Zelena Stranka entered the European Parliament on behalf of the European Greens Party, with one seat for the first time. Nicolae Ștefănuță, in Romania, was, at the time of writing, at the three-percent threshold for independent candidates, meaning that the current Member of the European Parliament, who defected to the Greens in the last legislative period, had a 50% chance of entering the European Parliament.
In Southern Europe, the Greens won representation in Italy (Europa Verde), after being absent from the European Parliament during the last legislative period. Europe Elects expects them to win about three seats; however, counting had not yet concluded at the time this article was authored. In Spain, Catalunya en Comú re-entered the European Parliament.
In Scandinavia, the Greens also saw gains: SF – Socialistisk Folkeparti in Denmark increased its seat number from two to three, winning first position in the country for the first time. In Sweden, Miljöpartiet maintained its strong three seats.
However, blank spots on the map remain: the Greens did not win any seats in Czechia, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Malta, Poland or Slovakia.
Counting in Ireland will not conclude before Tuesday 11 June; due to the electoral system, there are no results available yet.
At the time of writing, Europe Elects estimates that the European Greens received a popular vote share of about 6.3% across the EU.
The European Greens sit with smaller groups in the Greens/EFA group in the European Parliament. The largest of these is currently Volt Europa, which is projected to win five seats, four more than in 2019. The European Pirates are set to lose almost all their delegates: from four they decline to only one. One seat is going to the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (LVŽS), which has been sitting with Greens/EFA but has now announced that it intends to join Giorgia Meloni’s national-conservative ECR bloc. The regionalist EFA Party is set to win six seats, three of which are set to sit with Greens/EFA.
At the time of writing, the centre-right EPP bloc was set to make minor gains compared to the current composition, winning 188 seats (+10); together with the centre-left S&D (135 seats; -5) and the liberal Renew Europe group (80 seats; -22), the traditional centrist majority in Parliament held tight. The national-conservative ECR is currently set to replace the Renew Europe group as the third-largest political force. However, much here will depend on post-election negotiations and final results from Ireland. The right-wing ID group of Marine Le Pen – now making up almost half of the French delegation – is set to win 64 seats (+5); the Left group remains the smallest group in Parliament, with 40 seats (+3). There are 77 seats (+28) which are currently with Non-attached (NI), of which Fidesz (10 seats) intends to join the ECR Group.
When turning to the European political parties, the EPP Party was projected to win 172 seats (+3), although they should not be confused with the EPP Group, which was set to win 189 seats. The Party of European Socialists was set to win 132 seats (-2), and 139 for the whole S&D Group. The liberal ALDE Party is set to win only 58 seats (-9), suffering the largest losses alongside the European Greens. The national-conservative ECR Party of Italian Prime Minister and European Council member Giorgia Meloni is set to win 58 seats (+7). The right-wing ID group of Marine Le Pen increased from 48 to 57 seats (+9). The European Left will remain unchanged at 27 seats. The centrist EDP Party was projected at eight seats, three seats lower than it is currently. The Christian fundamentalist ECPM Party lost more than half of their seats, falling from five to two.
This article was written on the afternoon of Monday 10 June. Counting is set to finish around Tuesday 12 June.
The final results will ultimately be published here on the website of EuropeElects.
The views and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union.
This article first appeared here: eu.boell.org